IQVIA’s analysis shows that expanding 340B eligibility under a “continuum of care” model could more than double branded drug sales within the program, from $93B in 2022 to $189B. Scenario modeling revealed growth of 49% when restricted to entity and contract pharmacies, and 272% when extended to all prescriptions from 340B patients. Expansion varied 10-fold across therapeutic areas, with psychotherapeutics and ophthalmology showing the largest jumps. While hospitals and clinics could see major revenue gains, risks include higher manufacturer costs, payer disputes, and increased taxpayer burden, with limited evidence that patients benefit from discounts.

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