HUB International’s 2026 Trend Study says benefit-cost inflation remains elevated and recommends budgeting 7–9% medical-only, 10–12% Rx-only, 8–10% combined medical+Rx, plus 4–5% dental and 2–3% vision, noting results vary by region, demographics, industry, and carrier/TPA dynamics. Carrier data shows meaningful regional spread in 2025 (East highest medical trend; Pacific next; South generally lowest) and a slight national uptick into 2026 (Med/Rx combined ~8.32% → 8.42%) while pharmacy accelerates (Rx ~10.43% → 11.26%). Main inflators are higher utilization (notably mental health/substance use and surgeries), high-cost/specialty drugs (GLP-1s, cell/gene therapies, biologic switches), provider price inflation tied to labor and consolidation, worsening population health/severity, and mandated benefits. Key deflators include site-of-care shifts (ASC vs hospital/ER), biosimilars, tighter GLP-1 management, and broader medical/risk management—though HUB emphasizes Rx as the biggest challenge and opportunity to manage.

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